Kenneth C. Griffin, the billionaire hedge fund founder and one of the world’s most prominent art collectors, warned Tuesday that the global economy faces a recession if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the end of this year.
“Let’s assume it’s shut down for the next six to 12 months,” Griffin said at the Semafor World Economy summit in Washington, D.C. “The world’s going to end up in a recession. There’s no way to avoid that.”
Griffin, the CEO of Citadel, said that closure of the Strait, a daily passageway for roughly 20 percent of global oil consumption, has created energy shocks that have already raised the risk of a downturn. He added that a prolonged closure would force central bankers into difficult decisions over whether to treat inflationary spikes as transitory or to raise rates in order to combat inflation. He called the current moment “very, very treacherous” for the global economy.
The remarks carry particular weight in the art world, where Griffin is among the most active and deep-pocketed buyers globally. He famously paid $300 million for a Willem de Kooning painting and $200 million for Jean-Michel Basquiat’s Untitled (1982)—both in private sales. (That painting set Basquiat’s auction record at $110.5 million when it sold at Sotheby’s New York in 2017.) In June, the Pérez Art Museum Miami will present an exhibition of Basquiat paintings owned by Griffin, including Untitled. Griffin’s collection also includes major works by Paul Cézanne, Jasper Johns, Jackson Pollock, and Njideka Akunyili Crosby.
Griffin is also one of the most active arts patrons, having donated $40 million to the Museum of Modern Art in New York, $10 million to the Museum of Contemporary Art, Chicago, $25 million to the Shed in New York, and $125 million to Chicago’s Museum of Science and Industry, which has since changed its name to the Griffin Museum following the donation.
While the art market clawed its way back to modest growth last year—due in large part to several trophy sales in the fall marquee auctions—the recovery has been tenuous at best. The first half of 2025, however, was marked by lowered sales and collector pullback at the auction houses and galleries, with several prominent galleries closing. The soft market, following a two-year slide in art sales, was largely attributed to fatigue over geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, and fears over a recession driven by the Trump Administration’s chaotic tariff implementation and ongoing global trade war.
Any hopes that 2026 would provide stabilization, either economically or geopolitically, were dashed with US attack on Venezuela to abduct President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 and, eight weeks later, the launching of the current war with Iran. As a result of the war, Iran has closed the Strait, which has spiked oil prices and sent shockwaves through financial markets. If such economic shocks continue, it seems likely that collectors may again reduce their spending on art.
