The art market is in a period of transition. 2024 was a difficult year for auction houses, followed by a slow but sure recovery in 2025. Collectors with works to sell have gradually begun to readjust their expectations, but the auction houses are under pressure to deliver results.
As a consequence, all buyers at auction need to think smartly about the value of the works being sold at auction and carefully review sources such as estimates quoted by auction houses.
Here, I share some notes to keep in mind when bidding in auctions and interpreting sales.
Auction estimates reflect sellers, not the market
An auction estimate is a negotiated price range—part market signal, part sales strategy—intended to guide bidding. It is usually set as a low-to-high range.
In practice, estimates anchor expectations in the room, influence where bidding begins, and can be used to create momentum or confidence. Crucially, however, they should never be mistaken for an objective or fixed measure of what an artwork is truly worth.
In my career as an auctioneer, I always believed that conservative estimates generated the highest level of competition and prices. A perfect example of this was Sotheby’s very sensible approach to estimates for their hugely successful Pauline Karpidas sale in London last September, which was 100 percent sold and made $136 million against a pre-sale estimate of $80 million. One could argue that this sale—and the auction house’s wise estimating approach—kick-started the current confidence in the global art market.
Still, collectors need to be particularly wary of works reappearing less than five years after their purchase. This could signal that the buyer is looking to recoup their costs in a market that may have fallen by as much as 20 percent in recent years.
Add in buyers’ premiums—an additional percentage fee paid by the buyer on the winning hammer price of an auction lot—and estimates can drift upward to bridge the gap.
The simple answer is to do your homework before you bid. Seek specialist, expert advice, and also look for market information from transparent data sources.
Be wary of how competition creates optimism
Over the past decade, competition for major consignments among the leading auction houses has intensified. This has pushed some estimates higher at the top of the market, particularly for the rarest objects in major collections.
While some pricing has corrected by as much as 20 percent, some areas are still out of step. Certain established early 20th-century artists, such as Fernand Léger, Ernst Ludwig Kirchner, Alexej von Jawlensky, and Maurice de Vlaminck, alongside post-war and younger artists whose works surged in price between 2020 and 2023, are still recalibrating.
Each sale leads to readjustments, but it takes time for owners to adjust their expectations in line with these new price levels. Be patient, monitor the markets and, most importantly of all, trust your judgement.
Understanding the impact of auction guarantees on estimates
Guarantees—minimum prices promised to sellers by auction houses—have become more common as competition between the auction houses has increased and sellers have lost confidence in current pricing levels.
This tends to support strong estimates for top lots in the tentpole evening sales, where risk is concentrated. Day sales, designed to encourage competition and high sell-through rates, can offer greater opportunities for bidders.
The same applies to estate sales, where, once the headline works have performed, the remainder can be overlooked and underpriced. In an estate sale like the recent Roger and Josette Vanthournout collection auction at Christie’s London, for instance, more flexibility is allowed on reserves. When the evening sale goes well, an auctioneer can start bidding for these works at much more reasonable levels—often, very good buys can be made at the tail end of major collection sales.
A patient buyer can often find a bargain.
How to use price data without being misled
Today’s art buyers have unprecedented access to data. In days gone by, collectors had to rely on unillustrated Mayer price guides. Today, visuals, auction records and comparative descriptions are available at the click of a button.
But more information does not always mean clearer judgment.
Outlier prices—especially those from major collection sales—can distort perception. There are plenty of examples of works achieving breakaway prices which are rarely matched in the decade that follows. Great collection sales can generate incredible prices for individual works, as the discerning eye of a storied collector casts a spell over the market. We have witnessed this effect in the collections of David Rockefeller, Si Newhouse, Paul Allen and, more recently, Leonard Lauder.
Great provenance equals great prices. Be wary of tying your expectations to top prices paid for artists like Henri Matisse, Claude Monet, Pablo Picasso, Lucian Freud or Gustav Klimt achieved in these contexts. It would be unwise to skew your judgement as you bid for other works by these artists—or draw conclusions about the general health of the art market. These are special auctions, in which the general rule is often broken.
World records are more regularly achieved in these magical sales than in any others. Provenance can elevate value dramatically—and temporarily.
Some key tips on bidding at auction
Start early
When auctioneering, I try to allow opening bids to come in below the low estimate, even if the reserve, or minimum, is set higher.
This allows strong bidders to engage early with the auctioneer and dictate the pace, which is often highly advantageous. An experienced auctioneer will continue to take bids from this opening bidder until they drop out or win the object.
So I suggest bidding first. Resist the temptation to watch and wait; in my experience, playing a waiting game at auction rarely works. Imagine being a sports team that allows the opposition to score first then has to fight a rearguard action. Psychologically, too, getting in early, giving an object your best shot, and losing it is much better than suffering the disappointment of not even raising your hand. Be bold, show strength, bid with purpose and—if it does happen—lose with grace.
Trust your number, not the estimate
Auctioning is a gladiatorial sport, and there is only ever one winner. Follow your plan and be prepared to put in an extra bid to see off the competition.
As an advisor, I have frequently bought objects for less than I expected simply because I was not pushed to my client’s maximum price. Often, when you see high prices paid against estimates, it is for the very best works in the sale. This was certainly the case in the London auctions earlier this month: the majority of works sold around the low estimates in the evening sales, while the much-publicized 20 percent that sold above estimate were the best works in the auction.
Take comfort in the fact that if someone else is bidding well above the estimate, their involvement validates your judgment in going higher. In future years, nobody will care where the presale estimate was set. Pay if you believe in the work.
Control the pace
Bear in mind that, as a bidder, you are not obliged to follow the auctioneer’s increments—or the published estimate.
Bold bidding and larger increments can dissuade or intimidate your opposition.
In the case of Leonardo da Vinci’s Salvator Mundi (1499–1500)—the most expensive work I ever auctioned and the most expensive work in auction history—bidding increments were intentionally disruptive and unpredictable, as several bidders vied to outwit one another. The pattern of cat-and-mouse bidding in small steps at the start of the chase was followed by an artillery of incredibly bold single bids of $10 million, $20million, and eventually $30 million. That pace, with the swift changes of increment, created one of the most extraordinary passages of competitive bidding ever witnessed at auction.
An auction is exhilarating. Do your homework, know your field, never be shy about seeking advice, attend the sale in person, plan to win, give it your best, and enjoy every moment.
