My book tour made a final, pre-Christmas stop at the Wallace Collection. After months crossing the country it was nice to end in London, like a play that finally transfers to the West End (albeit for one night only). My talk went well enough, but the highlight was being shown Poussin’s Dance to the Music of Time (around 1634-36) in its special new room. The Wallace’s director, Xavier Bray, hung it beside a bronze copy of the Borghese Dancers, a cast probably arranged by Poussin himself.
Because, rather sadly, I rank my life in terms of BBC Radio 4 appearances (Today contributions at one end, Desert Island Discs at the other), I was delighted to be on Start the Week. Unlike most discussion programmes nowadays, Start the Week is recorded live. There’s no room for error, hesitation or dullness. The producers usher you into a studio, then it’s the Radio 4 pips, and suddenly you’re talking to millions. Joining me were the art historian Susan Owens, author of The Story of Drawing—an Alternative History of Art (2024), and the artist and illustrator Lucinda Rogers. Between us we could tell the story of British art from 10,000BC to the present day. One of the many impressive things about the programme’s host, Tom Sutcliffe, is that after only 45 minutes it didn’t feel as if we’d left too much out.
The highlight was being shown Poussin’s Dance to the Music of Time in its special new room
My visit coincided with the London Old Master sales, which felt notably thin. Certainly, the December sales are always less busy than those in July, but all three houses—Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Bonhams—had fewer pictures than usual. One experienced observer told me plainly: “The art market has left London.” I don’t think that’s right, but it does seem to be leaving. Here’s a statistic: in 2019, Christie’s held more than 120 sales in London; in 2024, the figure was 65.
What’s going on? My market-observing friend blamed the departure of rich “non-doms” after UK tax rules were changed. The art market certainly needs people who think nothing of dropping £100,000 on a painting. But I think there have been bigger changes since 2019: Covid and Brexit. Covid prompted more online sales, which create less of a buzz in central London. And Brexit has led to less art coming to London. For higher value items, London still offers sufficient access to collectors to make new customs complications worthwhile, but for mid-level pictures it is a different question. Anyone watching the sales in Paris will see where the market has begun to shift.
There is worse to come. From June 2025 a new EU regulation will make it harder for people in Europe to buy historic British art. The regulation requires anyone wanting to import paintings older than 200 years and worth more than €18,000 to have proof it was exported legally. The measure doesn’t apply to European paintings, but does apply to British paintings, because Brexit means British art is officially no longer European. That said, because of the Northern Ireland arrangements, the new EU regulation will still apply within Northern Ireland. So it will be easier to move a Titian than a Gainsborough between Belfast and London.
The good news is that wherever it is, the Old Master market is in good health. In London many pictures exceeded estimates, notably a £10m (with fees) Botticelli at Sotheby’s (estimate £2m-£3m). The Louvre bought a Tiepolo at Christie’s for £2.4m (estimate £1m-£1.5m). Even at the day sales, prices were strong; at Christie’s a copy of a Holbein made £327,000 (estimate £40,000-£60,000). The end of the Old Master market has been regularly prophesied by some market observers. But if it can take pandemics and Brexit in its stride, I think we can put that myth to bed.
